Lucky Dog Poker by Russ Scott

With the highly anticipated World Series of Poker main event final table set to play out Saturday and late Monday, then aired on ESPN Tuesday night, an interesting question arises:

Which of these outcomes would benefit the game most?

— Is it a victory by popular Las Vegas pro Phil Ivey, the acknowledged best player in the game, which would thrill poker fans everywhere and bring star power to the world champion's title?

— Or is it an improbable "Cinderella" win by massive chip leader Darvin Moon, an inexperienced amateur who admits he's the worst player at the table?

The answer is we'll probably never know.

That's because Ivey, gunning for his eighth WSOP bracelet at age 33 and usually the man to beat in any game, likely is too short-stacked to come from behind despite his experience and immense talent. Many believe he can pull it off, but he must win the first big pot or two that he plays, which injects too much luck into his chances.

And it's because Moon, a 45-year-old logger from western Maryland with just a few years of low-stakes play under his belt, probably won't continue his extraordinary run of great cards from July, when the tournament went on hiatus for 115 days. A tough lineup of opponents figures to wear him down to a third-place finish.

So who does that leave as the probable champ?

Well, I wouldn't bet on either of the two non-U.S. players, James Akenhead of London or Antoine Saout of Paris. Amazingly, both young players followed up their summer November Nine achievement by also making the final table this fall at the WSOP-Europe main event. However, both have shorter chip stacks than Ivey and little room to maneuver.

Kevin Schaffel and Joe Cada respectively are sixth and fifth in chips and the oldest and youngest players at the table.

Both have made a big tournament score during the layoff, but neither has much experience at this level of live competition, so they're pretty big underdogs.

That leaves Eric Buchman, Steve Begleiter and Jeff Shulman, who rank second, third and fourth in chips. Buchman and Shulman are seasoned pros with $1 million or more in tournament winnings, so let's discount the chances of Begleiter, an amateur who owes much of his chip stack to big gambles and lucky river cards so far in the event.

Between the remaining two, I think Shulman, co-publisher of Card Player magazine, will prevail as champ even though he begins play 15 million chips behind Buchman. Their playing styles are similar — calm demeanor with measured aggression — but Shulman made the WSOP main event final table on his first try in 2000 and can draw from that experience.

During a media conference call last week, an ESPN official said Tuesday night's "same day" telecast should feature "stellar" competition and, with Ivey in the field, achieve even higher ratings than last year's successful final-table show. He's probably right. The buzz over this finale has been huge.

So, here's the final-table lineup with seat assignments, ages, hometowns and chip counts. Who do YOU pick to win?

Seat 1: Darvin Moon, 46, Oakland, Md., 58,930,000

Seat 2: James Akenhead, 26, London, 6,800,000

Seat 3: Phil Ivey, 33, Las Vegas, 9,765,000

Seat 4: Kevin Schaffel, 51, Coral Springs, Fla., 12,390,000

Seat 5: Steven Begleiter, 47, Chappaqua, N.Y., 29,885,000

Seat 6: Eric Buchman, 29, Valley Stream, N.Y., 34,800,000

Seat 7: Joe Cada, 21, Shelby Township, Mich., 13,215,000

Seat 8: Antoine Saout, 25, Paris, 9,500,000

Seat 9: Jeff Shulman, 34, Las Vegas, 19,580,000

E-mail your poker questions and comments to russ@luckydogpoker.com for use in future columns. To find out more about Russ Scott and read previous LuckyDog Poker columns, visit www.creators.com or www.luckydogpoker.com.

COPYRIGHT 2009 RUSS SCOTT

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